
A Short Series to navigate ML careers skills and competencies in Quants, Risk & Financial Engineering
Embark on a journey to enhance your "Desired ML Career and Interview Skills" with our insightful short series. Navigate through crucial interview questions, each with strategic answers tailored to empower you in the competitive arenas of Quants, Risk Management, and Financial Engineering. Elevate your preparation and confidently step into the world of machine learning careers within the dynamic landscape of quantitative finance.
Response Keynotes
Response Keynotes
Response Keynotes
Response Keynotes
Response Keynotes
Prediction is more or less like Pattern Recognition and Deep Neural Networks (DNN) is a power tool for Pattern Recognition used for Market Index Price & Volatility Forecasting
Deep Neural Network (DNN) Advantages
Drawbacks of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs)
| Data Extraction & Description: Sourced VIX i.e. S&P 500 Volatility Index [^VIX] using Yahoo Finance as an interface. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Period: Spanning from 1st Jan 1971 to 30th Apr 2022 | Data Frequency: Daily VIX Index Price Values | Total Observations: 8146 records (250 trading days per year) | Total Columns: 7 'Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close', 'Adj Close', 'Volume' | Final Column Used: 'Adj Close' is VIX price adjusted by averaging for last 1 hour |
| Data Exploratory Analysis & Visualization | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonal Decomposition: Daily VIX Price Series ('Adj Close') - VIX Price, Trend, Seasonality & Residuals |
Averaging of % VIX Price Change Over 250 days rolling window to overcome Volatility Clustering |
Plotting VIX_mean 250 & its Distribution |
Correlational Scatter Plot b/w VIX_mean 250 & its lags |
ACF & PACF Plots VIX_mean 250 |
| Model Dataset Preparation | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perform Stationarity Test AD-Fuller |
Apply Data Scaling Min-Max scaling on dataset |
Split Dataset Train (75%) & Test (25%) |
Visualise Periodic Spread Train Test Plot | Create a 3-d Tensor Needed for LSTM & GRU |
| Model Design, Implementation & Application | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Model Fit on Train & Predict on Test using Auto ARIMA |
RNN Family ML Models LSTM, GRU & Hybrid LSTM-GRU |
Tuning RNN Hyperparameter No-of-Neurons, Activation Function etc. for RNN |
Train RNN Variants Train using Validation Loss as Early Stopping Criteria | Apply RNN Variants Apply each RNN-family variants on Test Set |
| Model Performance Evaluation & Comparison | ||
|---|---|---|
| Model Epoch Training Evaluation Train v/s Validation RMSE & Loss |
Test Prediction Accuracy Plotting Projections v/s Actuals for Test Set |
Model Complexity & Accuracy Evaluation Measures: Trainable Parameters, Loss, RMSE & R-Square |
